Poinciana Fl Real Estate Report. HELP!!!

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Hi folks. Today I want to try to get my head around the distressed property market in Poinciana FL. By distressed properties I mean, banked owned and short sale listings. These stats are from the Mid-Florida Regional Multiple Listing Service and assume that the data was entered correctly. I’m sure there is a small percentage of incorrect data so the percentages may be a tad low. If I had to take a guess I would say they are low by about 2%-3%.

So what I’m doing is comparing the figures for Poinciana neighborhoods, zip codes 34758 and 34759 excluding Cypress Woods, Crescent Lakes, Doral Woods, Lake Marion Golf Resort and the other “sub” subdivisions WITH Kissimmee excluding Poinciana.

I want to see what percentage of the Active, Pending and Sold listings since Jan.1, 2008 are distressed properties(REO/SS).

My goal is to see how Poinciana Villages stacks up. Let’s see what we have:

THIS CHART IS FOR POINCIANA

POINCIANA

ACTIVE

PENDING

SOLD

TOTAL

1184

116

101

REO/SS

474

84

63

% OF TOTAL

40%

72%

62%

THIS CHART IS FOR KISSIMMEE

KISSIMMEE

ACTIVE

PENDING

SOLD

TOTAL

3889

350

368

REO/SS

855

153

108

% OF TOTAL

22%

44%

29%

Now what does all this mean? Well, the obvious is that Poinciana is quite bit worse off than Kissimmee. It also shows me that the distressed properties are on the rise in both markets. This is evident by the percentage of pending listings that are distressed properties.

It’s also evident that the market in Poinciana is being dominated by distressed properties. While this appears to be a negative it’s actually a positive. In my opinion, it means we are getting near to the end of the declining market. Now this doesn’t mean things will be turning around in the near future it just means that we are getting to the stage in the decline where prices are reaching the bottom.

Let me explain. And please remember this is just my opinion. My crystal ball is still at the shop getting repaired so I’m basing this on my market knowledge and what I see and hear in Poinciana.

In early 2007 we had the mortgage “crisis”. During this time Sellers were still being unrealistic about pricing and there were many over priced properties just sitting on the market. All the “Flippers” that had swooped in on Poinciana during the boom of 2005 and 2006 were still holding out for the big bucks. Market reality had not settled in yet.

In the latter part of 2007 these property owners started struggling and the new “buzz word” was short sale. Our market was saturated with short sale listings. Unfortunately, the Lenders were either not prepared for the onslaught, of short sale requests, or they just weren’t interested. Some of these short sale properties were sold but the majority were foreclosed on.

Now, we have far more bank owned properties (REO) on the market than short sale listings. Buyers are not interested in short sales any more. And why should they be? Why wait for months, for a deal that may or may not close, when they can just purchase a REO property?

Pending listings and sales have actually increased, just a tad, over the last 60 days. This means that Buyers are now taking notice of the REO properties. In fact some of these properties are being scooped up in a matter of days. While inventory hasn’t decreased, properties are starting to sell, if the price is low enough.

Anyway, over the next 6 months or so we should start seeing a decrease in inventory. Once this starts happening values should start to level out. However, we are still in for a rough ride for the rest of this year. Hopefully, the first part of 2009 will be better and we will be on our way to recovery.

This is my analysis and I’m sticking to it. What say you?

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Bryant Tutas
Broker/Owner
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc
Licensed Florida Real Estate Broker
http://www.brokerbryant.com/
***The content of this blog is solely my opinion*** 

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